Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews celebrates after scoring against the Nashville Predators as we offer our Capitals vs. Maple Leafs prediction. — Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews celebrates after scoring against the Nashville Predators. Photo by Dan Hamilton via Imagn Images

It's not very often you get to feast your eyes on a best-on-best showdown. The best defensive team on home ice welcomes the most prolific road offense to Scotiabank Arena on Friday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+).

The Toronto Maple Leafs allow a paltry 1.93 goals per game at Scotiabank Arena, while the Washington Capitals, vying for a franchise-record eighth consecutive road win, score 4.64 per game in enemy barns.

The Caps have averaged five in their three away games without Alexander Ovechkin, so Toronto, which is among the Stanley Cup odds favorites and has won nine of its last 10 home contests, must be as tight as Ebenezer Scrooge's purse strings to upend the NHL's second-best road team.

Our Capitals vs. Maple Leafs prediction found the best value in player props for this encounter, with Tom Wilson taking the lead in the best bet.

Today's Capitals vs. Maple Leafs prediction

Odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best pick: Tom Wilson Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 43.48%

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Ovechkin is making significant strides, returning to the ice just 17 days after breaking his left fibula. The expeditious nature of his healing and regeneration more closely resembles the Wolverine than a mere mortal.

Come to think of it, they have similar hair, too.

In their superhero's absence, more of an onus is placed on Tom Wilson to perform at a higher level.

He has done exactly that, scoring three goals in the last four after a 12-game dry patch. Wilson has also increased his shot output, firing at least three in two of the last four games. Wilson averaged 2.75 shots in those four contests.

While those numbers don't exactly pop off the page or drop a jaw like Ovechkin's lizard-like regeneration, Wilson usually saves his best for the Maple Leafs.

He fired six shots on Joseph Woll on Nov. 13 and has at least three shots on goal in a staggering seven straight versus the Buds. In that stretch, Wilson averaged 4.14 shots per game.

He's also playing on the top line and first power-play unit. And while the Maple Leafs have the league's second-best defensive record, they allow 28.3 shots per game on home ice, tied for 16th with the Vancouver Canucks.

The plus-money odds add an extra layer of allure, and a winning $10 bet will profit $13.

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs player prop pick

NHL picks made Friday; odds subject to change.

Auston Matthews prop pick: Anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -106 via Betway | Implied probability: 51.46%

Auston Matthews is hockey's best goalscorer, especially when he gets on a streak. I backed him to score against Nashville Wednesday, and he did one better, lighting the lamp twice. That made it three goals in the last two games.

And he's usually at his lethal best against the Capitals, scoring five goals in the last five games against them. A winning $10 bet will profit $9.43.

William Nylander prop pick: Anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via Betway | Implied probability: 43.48%

Like Matthews, Nylander salivates at the thought of playing Washington. He has five goals in the last six games against the Caps, and he's netted two in the previous three contests, two against Nashville and one against Chicago.

Plus, Washington has allowed nine goals in their last two road contests. A winning $10 bet will profit $13.

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs live odds & info

When: Friday, Dec. 6
Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
Where: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
How to watch: ESPN+
Favorite: Maple Leafs (-150 via Betway)

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Written By:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.