There's a massive matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions this week on Sunday Night Football, as the winner will earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

• This is the first final-week game to decide a No. 1 conference seed since January 1994
• The NFC North is first division all-time with multiple 14-win teams
• The Lions beat the Vikings 31-29 in Minnesota during Week 7 on a field goal with 15 seconds left

The Sunday Night Football odds are showing the Lions as 2.5 or 3-point favorites depending on the sportsbook, with the total the highest of any game this season (56.5).

Kickoff from Ford Field is set for 8:20 p.m. ET, airing on NBC and Peacock. The Lions enter the game sitting second in the Super Bowl odds, while the Vikings aren't far behind in sixth.

Best Vikings vs. Lions picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. 원타임 카지노 데일리 보너스 subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Vikings +3 () vs. Lions ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Jared Goff Under 0.5 interceptions () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Vikings vs. Lions ATS prediction: Sunday Night Football

Vikings to cover the spread: +3 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Sam Darnold’s first season in Minnesota has been historic, as he's the fourth quarterback with 35-plus touchdown passes in his first season with a team, joining Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning.

The Vikings' offensive line did a great job of protecting Darnold against the Packers' pass rush last week, which bodes well for his chances of success now.

Darnold faced his second-lowest pressure rate (25%) of the season last week. He completed five of 10 passes for 29 passing yards and finished with a 0:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on those 11 dropbacks when he was pressured.

However, Darnold shredded the Packers' defense for 28 completions on 33 attempts without pressure while totaling 348 passing yards and recording a 3:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Detroit pressures the quarterback on 32% of dropbacks (12th).

Darnold also went 18-for-22 for 241 yards and a touchdown on throws between the numbers last week.

Vikings can be successful against Lions' defense

Detroit’s defensive injuries are starting to take a toll, as the Lions went from the second-ranked defense in terms of EPA/play allowed through the first 12 weeks to dead-last in that metric since.

As a result, Detroit’s average points-per-game allowed during that span has risen nearly 14 points.

The Lions also play man coverage at the league's highest rate, which is troublesome when defending Darnold. 

The signal-caller has posted the third-highest passer rating and fourth-highest per-attempt average against man coverage this season. However, he ranks 20th and 12th in those categories, respectively, against zone.

Jordan Addison is also well-positioned to be on the other end of Darnold's deep balls, and Andrew Brennan is featuring him in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Week 18.

Time to start believing in Minnesota

Despite winning 14 games for the second time in franchise history, the Vikings still don't come with the feel of a team generating the proper Super Bowl buzz entering this week.

Perhaps that's because they were given a projected preseason win total of 6.5, and the Vikings became the first team since 2004 to exceed their win total by at least 7.5 games.

Either way, Dan Campbell’s teams are just 3-8 straight up when playing on short rest, which is enough for me to fade a Lions team that's an impressive 9-0 SU under Campbell during night games.

Only make this one of your NFL Week 18 predictions if you can get Minnesota at +3, as I would pass at anything at +2.5 or lower. That's what FanDuel and DraftKings are currently offering.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Vikings vs. Lions player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jared Goff Under 0.5 interceptions (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jared Goff produced an uncharacteristic five-interception game in Week 10. He's put up a 20:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last seven games since then despite attempting 34-plus passes five times during that span.

Goff completed a whopping 88% of his pass attempts (22-of-25) for an 11.2 yards-per-attempt average in Week 7 against Minnesota. He's only beaten that per-attempt average in two games over the 10 contests since then.

Goff has completed at least 71.9% of his throws in three of the Lions' last four games. The 56.14% implied probability for this wager is a steal given how efficient and careful he's been. 

The best price is at FanDuel, as the Under is juiced as high as -145 at BetMGM. Through FanDuel’s -128 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $17.81.

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

Vikings vs. Lions odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Vikings vs. Lions injuries

Sunday Night Football game info

• Matchup: Vikings vs. Lions
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET 
• Where: Ford Field (Detroit, Mich.)
• How to watch: NBC/Peacock
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Lions -3 (-105 via BetMGM)

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