Favorites had another successful week, going 11-3 straight up in Week 11. We are back to identify our top three underdog plays of Week 12 after correctly hitting on one of last week's biggest upset picks.

• The biggest upset in Week 11 was the Seattle Seahawks (+225) ending a six-game losing streak (including playoffs) to the San Francisco 49ers
• San Francisco was the only one of the top seven favorites to lose last week
• Favorites are 10-1 in the last 11 primetime games (Thursday Night Football odds, Sunday Night Football odds, Monday Night Football odds)

The Colts salvaged a 1-2 week with our trio of upset picks, cashing as +160 moneyline underdogs. 

Our three upset picks for Week 12 all involve NFC teams, two of which are coming off losses.

NFL underdogs to back: Week 12

NFL odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Bears () vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐
• 49ers (+115 via BetMGM) at Packers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Rams () vs. Eagles ⭐⭐⭐

Week 12 upset predictions

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bears (+155) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bears are amid a four-game losing streak, though two of those losses have come on the final play of the game (Hail Mary vs. Washington, blocked game-winning field goal vs. Green Bay).

Before the losing streak, Chicago had won eight consecutive home games dating back to last season. And the early returns on the offensive coordinator change (last week was Thomas Brown’s first week in that role) seem to have paid off.

The Bears converted eight third downs against the Packers after combining for six third-down conversions over the previous three weeks. Chicago also got more production out of its running game (179 rushing yards), while its top three receivers combined for 17 catches. 

Minnesota has held three consecutive opponents to 13 or fewer points for the first time since 2017. Still, the Vikings are more vulnerable against NFC opponents (3-2) than their 5-0 record against the AFC.

BetMGM is the only top sports betting site offering higher than +150 to back the underdog Bears, and its +155 odds would net $15.50 in profits on a $10 wager.

Best odds: +155 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 39.22%

49ers (+115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While the Bears have lost a couple of heartbreak games the last month, San Francisco’s resume is littered with them, and it should be much better than its 5-5 record.

The 49ers suffered their third division loss after leading with two minutes remaining. Their five losses are by a combined 23 points, and they have fallen to .500 or worse through 10 games for the seventh time in the last 10 seasons.

San Francisco plays a Green Bay team that has been on the right side of close games more often than not. The Packers’ last three wins have come by a total of six points. 

Thus, while Green Bay is a rightful home favorite in this matchup because of its propensity for pulling out close games, it is only a matter of time before Jordan Love’s turnover issues cost it a game. Love became the first Packers quarterback since Brett Favre in 2005-06 with an interception in eight straight starts.

This line has moved away from San Francisco since Monday morning, when the 49ers were +100 moneyline underdogs. But that does not deter us from backing the 49ers to win outright.

Best odds: +115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 46.51%

Rams (+140) ⭐⭐⭐

The Rams play in primetime for the second time in three weeks. I am still making Los Angeles a confident three-star play to beat the Eagles as home underdogs, even though it failed to score a touchdown in a 23-15 loss to the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football last week.

Before that loss, Rams head coach Sean McVay was 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS in home matchups on Sunday or Monday night. His teams are now 20-17-2 ATS in night games, and the Eagles are an unprofitable 6-5 SU in their last 11 games as road favorites since the start of last season. 

Los Angeles has won four of five games after a 1-4 start, and the key to this week will likely be the turnover battle. The Rams are coming off their first game without a turnover since Week 3, and are a perfect 4-0 when winning the turnover battle. Philadelphia ranks tied for 12th with a +2 turnover margin.

DraftKings provides the best value for Rams backers, as it is the only top sports betting site with a price higher than +135.

Best odds: +140 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 41.67%

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)