After underdogs won three of the six NFL playoff games last weekend, we're expecting more chaos this weekend with our NFL upset picks for the divisional round.

There was only one upset on Wild Card Weekend by seed, but moneyline underdogs prevailed in three of six contests. With seven division winners in action this weekend, we're ranking the four underdogs in the NFL Divisional Round.

Both No. 1 seeds have made the conference championship in each of the last two years. And since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020-21, only two teams seeded fifth or lower have won in the divisional round.

NFL underdog rankings: Divisional round

NFL odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

1. Bills () vs. Ravens ⭐⭐⭐⭐
2. Rams (+225 via BetMGM) at Eagles ⭐⭐⭐
3. Texans (+375 via BetMGM) at Chiefs ⭐⭐
4. Commanders () at Lions ⭐

NFL Divisional Round upset predictions

NFL picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Bills (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Buffalo opened as a home favorite against Baltimore, but the line has since jumped the fence, as the betting public is likely swayed by the Ravens’ dominant 35-10 home win against the Bills in Week 4.

It's hard to go against a Buffalo team that is 9-0 at home this season, winning those games by an average of 17.4 points.

The Bills became the fourth team to have 250 passing yards and 200 rushing yards in a single game in the last 25 postseasons during their 31-7 win over Denver. It was also just their second such game in franchise history.

The Bills handed the Broncos their second loss of more than seven points this season and dominated a solid Denver defense by possessing the ball for more than 41 minutes. It was also Sean Payton’s 18th career playoff game, and the first time his team scored fewer than 14 points.

Of all the underdogs playing this weekend, it is hard not to have the most confidence in a Bills team that has yet to be beaten at Highmark Stadium. 

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites at which one can back the Bills at even-money odds, as they are as short as -105 (carrying a 51.22% implied probability) at other competing sportsbooks.

Pick: Bills to win

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50.00%

Rams (+225) ⭐⭐⭐

The Eagles are 13-1 in their last 14 games and have not lost at home since Week 2 against Atlanta. However, despite Los Angeles coming off a short week, it is still the second-most likely underdog to win outright despite Jalen Hurts’ 3-0 career home playoff record.

Los Angeles had Sam Darnold seeing ghosts once again, sacking him nine times and forcing two turnovers, one of which led directly to a defensive score.

Saquon Barkley ran for a franchise-record 255 yards in a 37-20 win over Los Angeles in Week 12. 

But the Rams defense has improved leaps and bounds since then, and it should be able to commit more defenders to the box after Philadelphia’s passing attack looked mediocre last week (Hurts did not complete a pass from late in the first quarter until 4:41 in the third).

Pick: Rams to win 

Best odds: +225 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 30.77%

Texans (+375) ⭐⭐

The Texans won as home underdogs last week by forcing Justin Herbert into four interceptions on 32 pass attempts. He had just three interceptions on 504 pass attempts in the regular season.

To give an idea of how dominant Houston’s pass rush was against the Chargers, Texans defensive end Danielle Hunter led the league with a 26% pass rush win rate this year. He and teammate Will Anderson were both over the 25% mark in that category on Saturday.

The duo’s constant pressure was a big reason the Texans became the fifth team in the Super Bowl era (and the first since 2002) to have at least four interceptions, four sacks, and a pick-six in a playoff game.

Kansas City may also start slow, as this is its first competitive game in three weeks after resting its starters in Week 18. 

The Chiefs earned a 27-19 win over the Texans in Week 16, but Kansas City has been far from dominant this year, and Houston has the tools to keep this game close - if not spring an upset. 

I would not put anyone off backing Houston at +8, but the Texans’ moneyline odds are worth a flier, and a $10 winning wager would net $37.50 in profits. These +375 odds are much better than the +320 (carrying a 23.81% implied probability) offered at DraftKings.

Pick: Texans to win

Best odds: +375 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 21.05%

Commanders (+420) ⭐

Jayden Daniels led the Commanders to their sixth comeback win last week after trailing in the fourth quarter. That is the most by any rookie starting quarterback since the start of 1950 (including the regular season and the playoffs).

As impressive as the win over Tampa Bay was, which snapped an eight-game playoff road losing streak by rookie quarterbacks, do not expect much of the same this week.

Washington needed to be extra aggressive to pull the upset last week. It converted three of five fourth-down opportunities and scored 14 points off drives with fourth-down conversions.

I do not give Washington much of a chance to win outright, so the better play to get involved with the Commanders is to back their spread of 9.5 points. Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering +9.5 at the standard -110 juice, while FanDuel is on the low end at +8.5.

Pick: Commanders +9.5

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

NFL Divisional Round expert picks

• NFL Divisional round odds
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• NFL Divisional Round picks & preview for every game

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