The Houston Texans clash with the Kansas City Chiefs as we feature our Texans vs. Chiefs prediction. The NFL divisional-round matchup is a rematch of a tight Week 16 tilt that ended with a narrow win for the Chiefs.

Kansas City is favored by the divisional round odds to take this matchup and advance to a seventh straight AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs racked up plenty of one-possession wins during the regular season, and we're anticipating another close affair today at 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Texans vs. Chiefs predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. 원타임 카지노 데일리 보너스 subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Texans +8.5 () vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Joe Mixon anytime TD () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texans vs. Chiefs ATS prediction: NFL Divisional Round

Texans to cover the spread: +8.5 ⭐⭐⭐

The Chiefs won by just eight in Week 16 despite Houston employing a questionable game plan. 

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud didn't play especially well - which was a common theme throughout the season - but his team didn't help matters by more or less abandoning the run. Houston running backs combined for just 15 rushing attempts, while Stroud threw the ball 39 times, despite the fact it was a relatively competitive game throughout.

However, during the Texans' Wild Card Weekend victory, they leaned heavily on Joe Mixon, especially in the second half. Mixon and the Texans wore down a stout Chargers defensive front, as he ran the ball 25 times to Stroud's 33 pass attempts.

Mixon missed practice Thursday with an ankle injury, but unless his ankle snapped in half, he'll be out there and ready for a big workload on Saturday. If the Texans can slow down the game, it could also help quiet what should be a raucous crowd at Arrowhead.

Eleven of the Chiefs' 14 victories this season were by just one possession. Additionally, they've won just two of their last 10 playoff games by more than one possession. I don't give the Texans a real chance of winning, but I think they can cover this number.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Texans vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions

• Texans vs. Chiefs prediction
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Texans vs. Chiefs best pick

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Joe Mixon anytime TD ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +140 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 41.67%

As I mentioned above, Mixon could enter the weekend with a questionable tag, but I can't imagine him not suiting up.

Not only will Mixon want to avenge his underwhelming performance from Week 16, but he also represents a former member of the infamous "Burrowhead" Cincinnati Bengals team that was robbed by the refs during the 2023 AFC Championship Game.

In the Texans' previous loss to the Chiefs, they made the same mistake many teams do when they play Kansas City: they abandoned the run to try to match quarterback play. I'm not sure why teams are still doing that in 2025, but it's a thing.

I'm hoping DeMeco Ryans learned from that, though, and he balances the rushing and passing attacks more to possess the football for longer stretches and keep his defense fresh for when it has to do battle with Mahomes and Co.

If he's active, Mixon is expected by the data to play a big role in Saturday's game. He's projected for 17.80 rushing attempts and, more importantly for this bet, 0.53 touchdowns.

I'm very happy with the value we're getting with these +140 odds for Mixon to find the end zone. DraftKings has the next-best price at +130 and bet365 has a Mixon TD priced at +125.

Our Mike Spector is a bit more skeptical of Mixon's potential volume as he lays out in his Texans vs. Chiefs player prop picks for this divisional-round contest.

Texans vs. Chiefs line movement

The Chiefs have always been heavily favored, but the spread has been moving even more in their direction. The number opened widely at -7.5, but it now commonly sits at -9 or -9.5.

The total hasn't moved as much. It mostly started at 42.5 before moving to 41 briefly, and now likely settling at 42.

Texans vs. Chiefs odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Texans vs. Chiefs live odds

Texans vs. Chiefs opening odds:

• Texans: +8 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Chiefs: -8 (-110 via BetMGM)

Texans vs. Chiefs injuries

Texans vs. Chiefs game info

• When: Saturday, Jan. 18
• Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 25 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph NNW
• Favorite: Chiefs -8.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

NFL Divisional Round expert picks

• NFL Divisional round odds
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