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Texans vs. Chiefs Early Picks, Predictions & 원타임 카지노 데일리 보너스 for Divisional Round

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 13, 2025 6:36 AM EST • 3 min 32 sec read.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes throws a pass while being pressured by Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cameron Heyward as we offer our Texans vs. Chiefs early picks, predictions, and odds.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes throws a pass while being pressured by Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackle Cameron Heyward. Photo by Barry Reeger via Imagn Images

After the AFC playoff bracket went chalk with the higher seeds advancing, a matchup between the No. 4 seed Houston Texans and the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs from Arrowhead Stadium (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) is on tap in the Divisional Round.

Our Texans vs. Chiefs early picks and odds analyze the “rest vs. rust” argument surrounding Kansas City, as it will not have played a meaningful game in three weeks after giving its starters a break in Week 18. Still, the Chiefs are as much as 8.5-point betting favorites by the Divisional Round odds.

Is this the first step toward a three-peat for Patrick Mahomes and his Super Bowl odds front-runner Chiefs, or can the Texans pull off the biggest upset of the playoffs?

My early Texans vs. Chiefs prediction: Under 43.5

NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Under 43.5

Best odds: | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Statistically, this was the worst season of Patrick Mahomes’ career, and the Chiefs did not top 30 points once. With their defense being the healthiest it has been in quite some time, a low-scoring rock fight should be in order.

Kansas City should have every defensive starter healthy, including defensive tackle Chris Jones, who hasn’t played since Week 15 because of a strained calf muscle.

The Chiefs face a Houston team that played some defense of its own in the wild-card round, limiting Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to the third-worst Total QBR (13.0) of his career.

And while Houston’s 32 points against Los Angeles make it seem like it had an offensive breakout, it had a negative EPA on both designed runs and dropbacks.

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Texans vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions

Texans vs. Chiefs live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Divisional Round game. 

Moneyline

  • Chiefs best odds: -400 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 80.00%
  • Texans best odds: +350 via bet365 | Implied probability: 22.22%

The Chiefs will likely be one of the most popular teams in moneyline parlays and teasers this week. The best value for Chiefs backers is at FanDuel, the only of our top sports betting sites charging less than -440 odds, which carry an 81.48% implied probability.

Mahomes is 6-0 in his career in the Divisional Round. Per ESPN Research, those six wins without a loss are the most by any quarterback in any round in NFL playoff history.

Kansas City beat Houston 27-19 in Week 16, and the last time the two met in the postseason was in 2019 when the Chiefs won 51-31 after trailing 24-0.

Spread

  • Chiefs best odds: -7.5 (-115) via FanDuel
  • Texans best odds: +8.5 (-112) via DraftKings

FanDuel and DraftKings are the only of our best sportsbooks offering spreads of 7.5 and 8.5, respectively, as all other competitors are at -8.

The 7.5 at FanDuel probably won't last long, and it would not be surprising to see the game kick off at -9. 원타임카지노 know how popular big favorites are in teasers, and at -9, those that use Kansas City in a six-point teaser would be laying a field goal instead of -2.5.

The line for the first meeting jumped the fence from Houston -1 to Kansas City -3.5 after Mahomes was given the all clear to play. 

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 42 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Under best odds: 43.5 (-115) via DraftKings

The most common total is 42, offered at BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars.

Houston’s dominant defensive performance last week will likely keep the Under as the more popular pick. The Texans were one of three teams to have two players record 10 or more sacks, and their pass rush was active with four sacks and nine quarterback hits last week.

It also does not help the case for the Over that Houston’s leading receiver in the first matchup was the injured Tank Dell, who recorded six catches for 98 yards and a touchdown.

Texans vs. Chiefs injuries to watch

How to watch Texans vs. Chiefs

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 18
  • Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
  • How to watch: ESPN/ABC
  • Weather: 30 degrees, 18% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NNW
  • Favorite: Chiefs -8 (-110 via BetMGM)

NFL betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”
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