The AFC-North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers storm into Huntington Bank Field to face the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

• The Steelers, among the 10 Super Bowl odds favorites, are tied with the Detroit Lions for the best against-the-spread record (8-2)
• Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 against the Browns
• Off to their worst start (2-8) since 2017, the Browns are 1-7 in their last eight

The Thursday Night Football odds have the Steelers as 3.5-point road favorites, and our Steelers vs. Browns prediction expects the home underdogs to cover in what should be a frigid evening in Cleveland. 

The below picks are part of our TNF coverage, including my Steelers vs. Browns early picks and Steelers vs. Browns TNF prop bets. 

Steelers vs. update betting info

The Steelers opened at 4.5-point favorites but the spread his since decreased to 3.5 across our best sports betting sites. A staggering 94% of the bets and 84% of the money is on the Steelers, while 54% of the bets and 50% of the money is on the Over. 

The total decreased from 40.5 to 37 at BetMGM, and the Browns moneyline odds shortened from +200 to +165. We covered a number of the most popular props for the contest, including our Russell Wilson picks and anytime touchdown scorer predictions. 

Best Steelers vs. Browns picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Browns +4 () vs. Steelers ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Jameis Winston Under 8.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Steelers vs. Browns against the spread prediction: Thursday Night Football

Browns to cover the spread: +4 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Steelers offensive concerns

Everything was set up for a productive offensive day for Pittsburgh last week. It faced a Ravens defense that entered the game with the most passing yards per game allowed, the second-most deep passing yards allowed, and the most passing touchdowns allowed of any team in the league.

Instead, QB Russell Wilson struggled with a 63.9% completion percentage, and the team won 18-16 on the strength of six Chris Boswell field goals. Yet, our Phil Wood targets Wilson as part of his Steelers vs. Browns player props. 

The Steelers impressively have won two games without scoring a touchdown this year, but the fact that they have played four such games is a cause for concern, especially since they did not exploit a weak Ravens secondary like they should have.

Weather is the great neutralizer

The Steelers defense is likely licking its chops to face a Browns offense that has scored 20-plus points in just one game this season. After Cleveland lost 35-14 at the New Orleans Saints last week, it has scored 16 or fewer points in every game during a four-game road losing streak.

The projected total has plummeted as low as 35.5 points at FanDuel, given the nasty weather forecast (90% chance of rain, 20-plus mph wind gusts). That should help neutralize the talent gap between these teams.

A defensive struggle should also force Cleveland to put the ball in its best offensive player’s hands more. Nick Chubb averaged a season-high 4.5 yards per carry in his fourth game last week but ran just 11 times. Wood is also confident in him as part of his Nick Chubb picks and predictions, as is Rod Villagomez in his first touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.

In a game when points figure to be at a premium, I am taking the four points with the underdog Browns. bet365 is the only top sports betting site offering +4.

That makes it worth paying slightly more in juice, where a $10 winning wager would still pay out $18.70. 

Steelers vs. Browns player prop

Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jameis Winston Under 8.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our most confident five-star play supports the Under on Winston’s rushing total, as the Browns quarterback hasn't attempted more than one run in four of his last six games.

Pittsburgh has done a masterful job containing two running quarterbacks over the last two weeks. The Steelers held Washington Commanders' Jayden Daniels to a season-low five rushing yards on three attempts. They kept Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson in the pocket last week and held him to four rushing attempts, his second-fewest of the season.

Aside from one game where Winston broke out for 27 rushing yards against the Chargers, he has not topped eight rushing yards in any other game this season. 

While the poor weather may lower Winston’s passing attempt total, that should not correlate to a big day rushing from an immobile signal caller, especially against a Steelers defense that limits opposing quarterbacks’ running abilities.

All of the top sports betting sites are aligned with this O/U of 8.5, but bet365 is the only one charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the Under.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Steelers vs. Browns odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Thursday Night Football game info

• Matchup: Steelers vs. Browns
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
• How to watch: Prime Video
• Weather: 39 degrees, 90% chance of precipitation, 18 mph W
• Favorite: Steelers -3.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

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