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Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson throws a pass against the Baltimore Ravens as we offer our Steelers vs. Browns early picks and predictions for TNF. — Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson throws a pass against the Baltimore Ravens. Photo by Barry Reeger via Imagn Images.

The Pittsburgh Steelers play their first of two games in the next three weeks against the Cleveland Browns when the AFC North rivals meet on Thursday Night Football.

Pittsburgh, among the 10 Super Bowl odds favorites, leads the AFC North by 1.5 games after last week’s win against Baltimore
Cleveland has lost seven of its last eight games
The two teams have split their last eight regular-season meetings

Our Steelers vs. Browns early picks and odds advise Cleveland backers to wait a little before weighing in on this game, as Pittsburgh will likely get much of the early betting support.

The below picks are part of our Week 12 NFL predictions, and while the line has moved, I have a similar thought in my Steelers vs. Browns prediction.

My early Steelers vs. Browns prediction: Browns +5

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Browns +5

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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I will almost assuredly be on the contrarian side with this wager. The Browns are off to their worst start (2-8) since 2017, while the Steelers are amid a five-game winning streak for the first time since 2020.

I hope that the Browns will improve upon their 57.1% cover percentage (8-6 ATS) in division games since 2022 and that the poor weather forecast will neutralize any talent disparity.

Last week was also the second time this season that kicker Chris Boswell accounted for all of Pittsburgh’s points in a game, so it is not exactly like the Steelers lit it up offensively against a vulnerable Ravens defense.

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Steelers vs. Browns live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 12 game.

Moneyline

Steelers best odds: -220 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 68.75%
Browns best odds: +200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 33.33%

The Steelers have won five consecutive games, and Russell Wilson has won four straight starts since replacing Justin Fields as the team’s starting quarterback. Conversely, Cleveland is 1-7 in its last eight games. Despite that win coming against a division rival (the Ravens), the line figures to move in support of Pittsburgh.

BetMGM has the most extreme moneyline odds on either side, as it is the only one of our best NFL betting sites higher than -225 on Pittsburgh and offering better than +185 odds on Cleveland.

Spread

Steelers best odds: -4.5 (-105) via Caesars
Browns best odds: +5 (-110) via DraftKings

Interestingly, DraftKings is the only top sports betting site offering +5 to back the underdogs, as all other competitors are in unison with a line of +4.5.

Given that Cleveland is 3-7 ATS this season and has covered just one of its five home games, I would expect more books to move to +5 or higher, even though Caesars and bet365 charge more in juice to back the underdog Browns.

Over/Under

Over best odds: 39.5 (-110) via BetMGM
Under best odds: 40 (-110) via DraftKings

Like the point spread, DraftKings is alone with its O/U of 40, as all other competing sportsbooks are a half-point lower at 39.5.

If the weather forecast gets worse before kickoff with a higher chance of precipitation and more strong winds, the total could tick down even further. It also makes sense for sportsbooks to lower the total to try and draw more two-way action, given that public bettors tend to support the Under in games on short weeks.

How to watch Steelers vs. Browns

When: Thursday, Nov. 21
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
How to watch: Prime Video
Weather: 36 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph SW
Favorite: Steelers -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”