After a mostly lopsided first round of the NFL playoffs, we're looking at which teams can carry that momentum as we make our NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread.

There were more blowouts during the wild-card round than at a two-year-old's five-hour birthday party, with only one of six games finishing with a margin of less than 12 points. We finished with a 5-1 record ATS as we look to carry our own momentum into this weekend.

Our NFL picks against the spread for every divisional round game expect underdogs to cover in three of four contests.

NFL ATS picks: Divisional round

NFL odds via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My ATS picks this week

NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Texans vs. Chiefs (-7.5) 

Best odds: | Implied probability: 53.49%

The Chiefs haven't played a meaningful game since Christmas Day, providing much-needed rest for integral team members in dire need. Defensive tackle Chris Jones (calf), offensive lineman Jawaan Taylor (knee), and running back Isiah Pacheco (rib) returned to the practice field last week. 

Let me first say I don't buy into the rust vs. rest argument where Kansas City is concerned. Any rest is good for the Chiefs, whose stars are too experienced, wily, and elite to suffer from any debilitating rust. If there is any rust, it will disappear as fast as Houston's chances of winning this game. 

Even with a minor high-ankle sprain, Mahomes led his Chiefs to an eight-point victory over the Houston Texans in Week 16. The Chiefs were playing their best football down the stretch, and I put Houston's wild-card win more down to Justin Herbert's nightmare than anything special the Texans did. 

Commanders (+9.5) vs. Lions

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%

The Super Bowl odds favorites welcome the upstart Washington Commanders to Ford Field as 9.5-point favorites at DraftKings.

While I have no doubt the Lions will prevail, I don't expect the visitors to suffer a lopsided defeat. Jayden Daniels has played three games where the Commanders didn't punt or turn the ball over, including last week in Tampa Bay. That's one more than Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, and Mahomes combined. 

While the Lions should be able to move the ball efficiently against a mediocre Washington defense, they should have difficulty preventing Daniels and Co. from putting points on the board, especially with a still-banged-up secondary. Plus, I'm of the opinion the 2025 Divisional Round games will be much more competitive across the board. 

Rams (+6) vs. Eagles 

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

The Los Angeles Rams have come too far to roll over and lose by a touchdown, even in Philly against the league's best defense. The Rams continually defy the odds and put their best foot forward. And like Matthew Stafford said after thrashing the Minnesota Vikings, they're playing for everyone in Los Angeles. 

The tragedy in Los Angeles has galvanized a collective that was already soaring. The Rams are 9-3 ATS in their last 12, including the wild-card victory at a neutral venue. Philadelphia's defense will probably propel the Eagles to victory, but I like the Rams to keep things close.

Jalen Hurts and his offense sputtered against the Green Bay Packers. Had it not been for the Eagles defense, which picked off Jordan Love three times, we probably wouldn't even be mentioning Philly and the divisional round in the same sentence. 

Ravens vs. Bills (+1)

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Does anyone else get the "who knows" vibe with this one?

Both teams have a bona fide NFL MVP odds front-runner who makes the miraculous appear rudimentary. We dove into the Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen debate ahead of this weekend's MVP clash.

Both quarterbacks have come oh-so-close to making their first Super Bowl, and the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens thrashed their wild-card opponents. 

I'm backing the Bills for two simple reasons: I think they'll be ready to prove they're immeasurably better than what they showed in the 35-10 Week 4 blowout loss in Baltimore. Also, I feel these teams are so evenly matched that home-field advantage, especially in Buffalo, could represent the decisive factor. 

A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09. 

NFL Divisional Round expert picks

• NFL Divisional round odds
• NFL Divisional Round predictions
• NFL Divisional Round upset picks
• NFL Divisional Round expert picks
• NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread
• NFL Divisional Round picks & preview for every game

NFL betting odds pages

Here are our best NFL betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook 원타임카지노 사이트 (U.S. only)