Nick Chubb Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday Night Football
Nick Chubb will look to lead his Cleveland Browns to a Thursday Night Football victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The tailback's recent performance is alarming as I make my best Nick Chubb picks and predictions. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, and the four-time Pro Bowler is in for another tough matchup. The latest Thursday Night Football odds are listing the Browns as 3.5-point underdogs despite the 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video) game being played in Cleveland.
Chubb hasn’t run for more than 52 yards this season, and he’s about to face the NFL's fourth-best run defense. But could he be more productive amid the snowy conditions expected for most of tonight’s game?
Our Mike Spector believes that weather will contribute to the Browns covering the spread in his Steelers vs. Browns prediction. He also outlines why the opposing quarterback will struggle in his Russell Wilson picks and predictions.
Nick Chubb prop predictions for Thursday Night Football
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Nick Chubb touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐
- Nick Chubb Over 51.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐
- Nick Chubb Over 3.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Nick Chubb touchdown pick vs. Steelers
Nick Chubb anytime touchdown scorer (+155) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +155 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 39.22%
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When making the best Steelers vs. Browns TNF prop bets earlier this week, I circled Chubb as an anytime touchdown scorer while declaring that as one of my top plays for the game. The wager still earns that distinction now.
Chubb has only logged one touchdown this season. But while the Steelers are allowing just 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game, they’ve given up nearly two per contest over their last three outings.
The Browns have been the least productive team in the red zone, scoring 0.9 touchdowns per game. But the Steelers are allowing 1.7 red-zone touchdowns per matchup over their last three. With snowy conditions expected, the Browns will play it safe and give Chubb more opportunities near the end zone.
The best price is still +155 at FanDuel. BetMGM is setting its odds at +150, and our other NFL prop betting sites have the price resting at +145.
Rod Villagomez is being even more bullish on Chubb scoring as part of his first touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Nick Chubb player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Nick Chubb Over 51.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Chubb has run for 50 yards in two of his four games since returning from a devastating injury. But he’s topped 51.5 yards just once, and he only barely cleared that number while rushing for 52 yards against the Baltimore Ravens.
Now tonight the veteran faces a defense allowing just 90.8 rushing yards per game, the league's fourth-lowest average. And yet the Over is the right play tonight.
Chubb has been the clear No. 1 back in Cleveland since returning, logging 53 carries over four weeks. While he’s been struggling thus far, Chubb averaged 6.1 yards per carry last year and 5.1 yards per attempt over a full season in 2022. He’s run for at least 58 yards in 10 of his 11 games against the Steelers, and Pittsburgh is allowing 113.7 rushing yards per game over its last three.
Currently, four of the five leading NFL parlay betting sites are featuring his yardage at 51.5, and bet365 is offering the best price of -110.
Meanwhile, Brenden Schaeffer is looking toward the opposing backfield as part of his Steelers vs. Browns parlay picks.
Nick Chubb Over 3.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Chubb has yet to get going as a receiver, catching two passes for just six yards this season. In one game he registered a single catch for minus-4 yards, and last week Chubb wasn’t even targeted.
However, Chubb logged 27 receptions in 2022, racking up 239 yards that season. Last year he ended up with four catches for 21 yards while not even playing two full games. The Steelers have allowed 339 receiving yards to running backs this season and an average of 4.1 yards per catch.
Though it will likely only take Chubb one catch to cash this Over, this is still only a three-star play, as there's no guarantee the ball will be thrown his way. But this is a decent matchup, so getting Over 3.5 yards for -110 is appealing for one of your NFL Week 12 predictions.
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