Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction, Picks, Odds Today: NLCS Game 5

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jack Flaherty throws a pitch as we make our Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS Game 5 prediction — Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jack Flaherty throws a pitch against the New York Mets. Photo by: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images.

The Los Angeles Dodgers look to celebrate on the New York Mets’ home field and punch their ticket to the World Series with a pennant-clinching win in Game 5.

New York’s loss in Game 4 was its first this postseason following a loss (had been 3-0 and won each game by two-plus runs)
The Mets have been shut out twice, the first time in a single postseason series for them in franchise history
The Dodgers are overwhelming World Series odds favorites after taking a commanding 3-1 lead in this series

Our Dodgers vs. Mets prediction expects the road team—which was the best team in the National League this season—to end the NLCS tonight.

Dodgers vs. Mets predictions: Game 5

Moneyline pick: Dodgers () ⭐⭐⭐
My best bet: Max Muncy Over 0.5 total bases (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Dodgers vs. Mets?

First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET, Citi Field

Dodgers to win ⭐⭐⭐

Freddie Freeman was absent from the Dodgers lineup yesterday with his ailing ankle, but it did not matter in the slightest. The team’s other two former MVPs set the tone early and often.

Shohei Ohtani homered in the first at-bat of the game (his second straight game with a home run), which was the fourth-hardest hit home run in the NL this season, and scored four runs. And the other MVP, Mookie Betts, set a career postseason-high with four RBIs while going 4-for-6 with three more runs scored.

It's not surprising to see those names near the top of the World Series MVP odds.

The scary thing about the Dodgers lineup is that before Game 4, it was more of the unsung heroes that were doing damage. Max Muncy (more on him later) had two home runs and a .692 on-base percentage, Kiké Hernandez was batting .333 with a home run, and Tommy Edman was batting .455 with four RBIs, while his nine hits this postseason was leading the team.

Even Will Smith went 2-for-4 in Game 3 after going 2-for-23 in the previous seven postseason games.

WIth a lineup that good, you cannot give them many free passes and expect not to get burned. The Mets were already just the second team in MLB history to allow seven or more walks in three consecutive games, and they issued nine more walks (and hit one batter) in Game 4. Twelve of those 31 batters that walked came around to score.

None of this analysis mentions that Mets starter David Peterson has not pitched more than three innings in three weeks, while Dodgers hurler Jack Flaherty is on normal rest and allowed two hits over seven shutout innings in a Game 1 win.

BetMGM is the only one of our top sports betting sites that offers better than -138 odds to back the favorites. Through its -135 moneyline odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $17.41.

Best odds: -135 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 57.45%

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My Dodgers vs. Mets best bet

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Prediction: Max Muncy Over 0.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

My analysis

Muncy is on a historic tear this postseason. He reached base in each of his first four plate appearances yesterday, which brought his consecutive plate appearances streak with reaching base to 12.

That smashed the previous record of 10 in a single postseason set by two other players.

Muncy is now slashing .296/.486/.667 in nine games this postseason.

This would be a more confident five-star play if walks counted towards a player’s bases total, as Muncy walked eight times in his 12-plate appearance streak. However, he did have two singles and two home runs as part of that streak, and the fact that he did draw eight walks recently suggests he is seeing the ball really well.

The Over carries as high as a 53.27% implied probability based on Caesars’ -114 odds, so I am taking advantage of the best number at BetMGM.

Dodgers vs. Mets odds

Dodgers vs. Mets live odds

Dodgers vs. Mets opening odds

Moneyline: Dodgers -140 | Mets +120
Run line: Dodgers -1.5 +125 | Mets +1.5 -150
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

NLCS Game 5 game info

When: Friday, Oct. 18
First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET
Where: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
Weather: 64 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph N
How to watch: FS1
Favorite: Dodgers (-135 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”