Penn State vs. Boise State Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: CFP Fiesta Bowl
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals get underway on New Year's Eve with the Boise State Broncos taking on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Fiesta Bowl. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
Our Penn State vs. Boise State player prop picks, which come after we released our Fiesta Bowl early picks, focus on some of the game's biggest stars. The Nittany Lions are 11-point favorites at our best sports betting sites.
A few NFL draft prospects - notably Boise State's Ashton Jeanty and Penn State's Abdul Carter - will be on display in this contest. Will either play a big role in elevating his respective team to the College Football Playoff semifinals?
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Penn State vs. Boise State college football player prop picks: Fiesta Bowl
College football picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
- Kaytron Allen touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Ashton Jeanty prop pick: Under 125.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐
- Drew Allar prop pick: Under 29.5 pass attempts () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Penn State vs. Boise State touchdown prediction
Kaytron Allen anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -135 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 57.45%
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Kaytron Allen has been on fire recently as a part of Penn State's two-headed rushing attack. Allen's found the end zone three times in the last two games, including twice in the Nittany Lions' convincing win over SMU. He's also registered double-digit touches in each of the last three outings, which means he's still a part of James Franklin's game plan, despite Nick Singleton returning to full health.
While Boise State boasts the nation's No. 14 total rush defense, the Broncos have been susceptible to touchdowns on the ground once opponents reach the red zone. They've surrendered rushing scores in 10 of 13 games this season, including their last two.
Allen has found pay dirt in 64.29% of Penn State's games throughout the campaign, despite sharing touches with Singleton. As such, we believe BetMGM's juiced odds (-135) still present value with a 57.45% implied probability.
Best Penn State vs. Boise State prop picks
Ashton Jeanty Under 125.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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All eyes will be on Jeanty as he chases down Barry Sanders' NCAA single-season rushing record of 2,628 yards. Jeanty needs 132 yards to rewrite history, a mark he's reached an astonishing 11 times this season. However, we predict he will come up short.
The Nittany Lions are the best rush defense Jeanty will have faced to date, comfortably ahead of UNLV (No. 24). Penn State ranks seventh in the country in total rush defense as it allows just 100.5 total yards per contest on the ground. Only one opposing back (USC's Jo'quavious Marks) has managed to clear the 100-yard mark against the Nittany Lions, and only one other player has reached 90 yards.
We're offering this play at three-star confidence as the Broncos may continue to feed Jeanty to try for the record, no matter the score. FanDuel has the best odds of our best college football betting sites on Jeanty's rushing prop Under (-114).
Drew Allar Under 29.5 pass attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Boise State, like Penn State, has one of the best rush defenses in the FBS. As we mentioned earlier, the Broncos rank 14th overall, giving up 112.5 yards per game on the ground. The best sportsbooks believe this will influence the Nittany Lions' offensive game plan, but we disagree.
Penn State's offense runs through Singleton and Allen, and there are no two ways about it. College football odds set Drew Allar's pass attempts line at 29.5, a number he's cleared in just two games this season. The only times he went Over came in a game against Oregon when the Nittany Lions trailed the entire time and an overtime thriller with USC.
Our best sports betting apps list Penn State as an overwhelming favorite, so barring a surprise result, the game script won't see Allar's name called upon more than usual. The Under is being offered at -115 odds by bet365. This line carries an implied probability of 53.49% when, in reality, Allar has failed to reach 29 pass attempts at an 85.71% clip this season.
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Penn State vs. Boise State odds
How to watch CFP Fiesta Bowl
- When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Penn State -11 (-110 via BetMGM)
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