Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction & Picks: College Football Week 13
After beating Georgia and positioning itself among the College Football Playoff odds contenders, Ole Miss rested during its bye week. Now can the Rebels avoid a letdown spot in Gainesville?
On the heels of three straight home wins for Billy Napier’s group, our Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction envisions the Gators continuing to defend The Swamp.
Florida hosts Ole Miss (-11.5) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla., on Saturday at noon ET (ABC). Ole Miss also sits sixth in the college football championship odds.
Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Florida +12 () vs. Ole Miss ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: DJ Lagway Over 216.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ole Miss vs. Florida ATS prediction: Week 13
Florida to cover the spread: +12 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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While Ole Miss enters Saturday riding high after beating Georgia, this line movement doesn’t fully appreciate how solid the Gators have been playing recently.
Where there’s a will, there’s Lagway
A combination of injuries and one of the nation’s toughest schedules has led the Gators to a 5-5 record.
But after opening the year 0-3 against the spread, Florida has covered the spread in six of its past seven games, only missing at Texas when true freshman Aidan Warner stepped in for QB DJ Lagway.
Florida has won three straight at home, earning a double-digit margin each time. Lagway served as the starter in two of those contests, beating Kentucky and LSU handily.
The majority of our best sports betting sites have moved this line to Florida +11.5, but we’re getting an extra half point from Caesars with Florida +12 at -110 odds.
Ole Miss vs. Florida best bet
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DJ Lagway Over 216.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Ole Miss boasts one of the nation's top run defenses, allowing only 86.0 rushing yards per game.
In a projected negative game script with Florida featured as a double-digit underdog, we’re looking for Lagway to throw with impunity in an effort to keep up with the Rebels' offense.
Air it out, Gators
Despite his low completion rate (58.5%), Lagway’s penchant for explosive passing plays (18.8 yards per completion) should bode well for this line.
Florida’s blueprint could be to attack an Ole Miss pass defense allowing 238.6 passing yards per game (83rd in FBS). Lagway has cleared this yardage line in all three of his starts this season, including twice in conference home games.
That mismatch through the air is one reason why our Shane Jackson is betting on Florida star receiver Elijhah Badger to score a touchdown as part of his college football Week 13 player props.
Caesars and bet365 list this line at 216.5 yards with odds at -118 and -115, respectively. With the line at 221.5 yards, Caesars and FanDuel don’t offer much value on this prop for Over bettors making one of their college football Week 13 predictions.
Ole Miss vs. Florida odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Ole Miss vs. Florida live odds
Ole Miss vs. Florida opening odds:
- Ole Miss: -6.5 (-110)
- Florida: +6.5 (-110)
Ole Miss vs. Florida game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 23
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, Fla.)
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 59 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph NW
- Favorite: Ole Miss -11.5 ()
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