As the College Football Playoff National Championship inches closer, we're looking at the tale of the tape to get a better idea of the Ohio State vs. Notre Dame comparison.

These are the final two teams standing for a reason, but how do they match up ahead of Monday's game at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta? And does Ohio State deserve to be an 8-point favorite at our college football betting sites?

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame comparison: Who is the better team?

• Ohio State football preview: Roster breakdown, key stats
• Notre Dame football preview: Roster breakdown, key stats

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds, betting lines

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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame stats, key info

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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: CFP tale of the tape

Here is how Ohio State and Notre Dame compare across a handful of key categories to help your college football picks for the national championship on Monday, Jan. 20.

Offense

For as competent as quarterback Riley Leonard has been for Notre Dame this season, especially as a runner, the Fighting Irish's passing attack is nowhere near as good as the Buckeyes'.

That's the biggest difference here, with Ohio State sitting first in EPA per dropback on offense and Notre Dame just 20th. The Irish just don't have any game-changing pass-catchers - Ohio State's third wide receiver (Carnell Tate) would likely be Notre Dame's top receiver.

Both these teams can run the ball - Ohio State's fourth in EPA per rush, Notre Dame's first - and both are dealing with injuries on the O-line. But the QB and wide receiver play of the Buckeyes is on a noticeably different level. 

Advantage: Ohio State

Defense

You can argue that this would be a toss-up if Notre Dame were at full strength. These are two of the best defenses in the country after all, and both rank in the top five by .

Despite losing cornerback Benjamin Morrison earlier in the season, Notre Dame is still first in EPA per dropback on defense. However, the loss of Rylie Mills for the Irish ultimately gives the Buckeyes the better group.

Jim Knowles' unit ranks in the top three in both EPA per dropback and rush thanks to having 11 starters who all likely have NFL futures. I don't think Notre Dame is better on the D-line, in the linebacker room, or in the secondary.

Advantage: Ohio State

Special teams

Neither of these teams are world-beaters when it comes to special teams. The Buckeyes are just 57th in SP+ on special teams, and Notre Dame is even worse at 84th.

Even with the worse ranking though, Notre Dame's special teams are more trustworthy heading into the national championship. Kicker Mitch Jeter finally appears to be healthy and he's 7-for-8 on field goals in the CFP, including 5-for-5 from 40-plus in the Irish's last two games.

Ohio State kicker Jayden Fielding is 3-for-6 in his last four games, including missing two clutch kicks against Michigan. The punting matchup is a wash, and both teams are solid in the return game.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Third downs

Shockingly, neither of these programs have been overly effective on third downs this season. Ohio State ranks 57th in third-down conversion rate (41.6%), giving the Buckeyes a slight edge over the 60th-ranked Irish (41.3%).

While third downs have been troublesome for the Buckeyes and Irish, both have thrived on fourth downs. Notre Dame is 19-for-26 on fourth down (73.1%) and Ohio State is 20-for-28 (71.4%).

Both teams have found themselves in third-down situations a nearly equal amount - Ohio State is 72-for-173, and Notre Dame is 71-for-172. But Ohio State's 45.6% 3rd/4th down success rate ranks 20th to Notre Dame's 41st ranking (44%).

Advantage: Ohio State

Red zone

Again, surprisingly neither team has been dominant in the red zone this season. Ohio State is a respectable 38th in red zone offense, with 49 red zone scores in 56 attempts (87.5%) - however, a large chunk of those end in touchdowns (43). 

Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 78th in red zone offense with 48 scores in 58 attempts (82.8%). Not only does the frequency in which they come away with points give the Buckeyes the edge, but the rate at which they score touchdowns is higher too.

Ohio State turns a red zone trip into a touchdown 76.8% of the time, while Notre Dame does it 72.4% of the time.

Advantage: Ohio State

Turnovers

It sure helps to have a ball-hawking safety that seems to force turnovers as frequently as Ohio State loses to Michigan. All-American Xavier Watts is a huge part of the reason the Irish are among the best turnover margin teams in the country.

Notre Dame ranks fifth in turnover margin (+17) with Watts accounting for seven of Notre Dame's nation-leading 32 forced turnovers. Leonard has also only thrown eight INTs this season, despite his inconsistent play.

Ohio State isn't nearly as strong with a +4 turnover margin, due in part to a limited number of defensive interceptions (10). But the Buckeyes have turned the ball over on offense an equal amount to Notre Dame (15 each).

Advantage: Notre Dame

Coaching

This is probably the hardest category to feel strongly one way or the other. Ryan Day's coaching struggles are vastly overblown and have really only come against Michigan, which, right or wrong, is the game that matters more to Ohio State fans than any other.

Still, though, he's never lost more than two games in a season and should get credit for hiring mentor Chip Kelly away from UCLA and bringing in Knowles, arguably the best defensive coordinator in the country.

But a slight edge goes to Notre Dame with Freeman showing just how good he is at managing a game in the matchup with Georgia. He also deserves praise for hiring ex-Miami head coach Al Golden as DC and stealing Mike Denbrock away from Brian Kelly and LSU to be his OC. 

Advantage: Notre Dame

Resume

Notre Dame is the most historically significant program in college football history, and Freeman was able to break the single-season wins record this year. Even with the extended schedule, that's impressive.

And while this is a completely different team now than it was in September, the loss to Northern Illinois is the reason Ohio State gets the resume nod. The Buckeyes' only losses came to CFP No. 1 seed Oregon by one point and an 8-5 Michigan team by a field goal.

The Buckeyes have also been more impressive in the CFP, outscoring Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas 111-52. Notre Dame's outscored Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State 77-51.

Advantage: Ohio State

NFL talent

Ohio State pretty clearly has more NFL talent. If all draft-eligible starters declare, the Buckeyes could seriously push to break Georgia's record of having 15 players selected in one single draft.

Offensively, at least seven players will likely be drafted - that includes left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin, both of whom will miss the championship due to injuries. Defensively, all but one starter could be drafted, with that one being true sophomore Caleb Downs, a likely top-15 pick next year. Realistically, 12 to 14 Buckeyes will go in the 2025 NFL Draft. 

Notre Dame is nowhere near that with likely just two or three offensive players being selected this April. The defense is in better shape with as many as seven players on the draft radar, but that includes the injured Morrison and Mills.

Both teams' best offensive prospects aren't even eligible for the draft with Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith looking like a top-five pick in 2027 and Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love set to be a top running back in 2026.

Advantage: Ohio State

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Who is favored to win?

Here is a look at the latest betting odds and matchup info for the national championship.

There are some serious differences in the spread for this matchup across our college football betting sites. Ohio State opened as a jaw-dropping 9.5-point favorite but has since seen that line move to a more reasonable -8 at most books, though the Irish are still available at +9.5 at others.

I still think we could see that line move a little more toward Notre Dame with 65% of the public backing the Irish to cover, according to the betting consensus. Based on how these teams match up, I would set this line at Ohio State -6.5.

Winning by two scores in the championship is a massive ask, especially when the opponent is a Notre Dame team that's won two of its three CFP games by two scores.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction: Who will win national championship?

Pretty much everything points toward Ohio State coming out victorious, which is why it's been the College Football National Championship odds favorite for weeks.

The Buckeyes have the better and more efficient offense, a better defense, more NFL talent, and have looked more impressive in the College Football Playoff. This roster is so talented and deep that it's already the favorite by the 2025-26 CFP National Championship opening odds.

With that said, I don't expect this to be a massive blowout like the way Ohio State trounced Tennessee and Oregon. Giving Freeman over a week to put together a game plan against his alma mater will really allow him to flex just how great a coach he is on the biggest stage.

I expect the Irish defense to take advantage of Ohio State's stitched together offensive line and to lean into its diverse run game on offense. That should help them cover, but I have Notre Dame ultimately losing 24-20 to the Buckeyes.

Prediction: Ohio State

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