We're expecting fireworks between Indiana and Notre Dame to kick off the first round of the College Football Playoff on Friday.

Our College Football Playoff parlay picks spread out from there, identifying our favorite picks at the best college football betting sites from across the weekend slate of action. These picks are a part of our college bowl game predictions for this week's slate.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

College Football Playoff parlay predictions

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites.

• Indiana-Notre Dame Over 52.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• SMU-Penn State Over 53.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Cade Klubnik Under 217.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tennessee +7.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Combined odds: | Implied probability: 7.82%

Parlay predictions for CFP Round 1

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Indiana-Notre Dame Over 52.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This total strikes me as too low for two teams that have top-3 scoring offenses in the nation.

Though Notre Dame’s adjusted defensive efficiency at second in the nation could come into play, Indiana (third nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency) won’t need to meet its average of 40.3 points per game to contribute to this total. The Irish have racked up 39.8 points per game to date.

Both teams leaned Over throughout the year, with Indiana games surpassing the total nine times and Notre Dame going Over seven times, each in 12-game seasons.  Even Indiana’s disappointing 38-15 loss to Ohio State snuck Over the 52.5-point total.

SMU-Penn State Over 53.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I don’t trust SMU’s defense. I haven’t understood why the metrics like it as much as they do considering the Mustangs give up sizable point totals any time they face a semi-competent offense. TCU, Louisville, Duke, Boston College, and Clemson all scored 27 or more points against SMU, after all.

Penn State’s performance offensively against Oregon suggests that the Nittany Lions are about to light up the Mustangs. But as much as I wanted to write up the Penn State spread for this pick, the more I realized I don’t have any gripes about the SMU offense.

SMU has scored fewer than 28 points just once all year. Considering the hefty 8.5-point spread, the backdoor could swing open in this one, so we’ll use that to our benefit by going Over. FanDuel still has the total listed at 53.5, while other spots have bumped it to 54 and beyond.

Cade Klubnik Under 217.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The path to victory for Clemson over Texas probably involves Austin native Cade Klubnik balling out against his hometown program. But against the juggernaut that is the Texas pass defense, I can’t envision a realistic path for him to achieve this goal.

While Klubnik has only fallen short of 217.5 passing yards four times this season, the Longhorns haven’t allowed a single opposing quarterback to clear this yardage mark in 13 games.

With the line floating between 211.5 and 217.5 passing yards across our best sportsbooks, FanDuel’s line at 217.5 yards is the best on the board for Under bettors.

Tennessee +7.5 (-115) vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State failed to win by eight or more points four times and didn’t demonstrate a level of consistency on offense against quality opponents that convinces me they’ll cover this lofty line.

Tennessee failed to keep things within a touchdown against Georgia, but otherwise, the Volunteers were clean against this 7.5-point cushion throughout the season.

It could matter which version of the visitors' offense shows up in The 'Shoe, but I can’t trust the Buckeyes (6-6 ATS on the year) to pour it on enough to pull away from the team with the No. 3 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.

College Football Playoff expert picks

• SMU vs. Penn State prediction
• SMU vs. Penn State player prop picks
• SMU vs. Penn State parlay picks
• Clemson vs. Texas prediction
• Clemson vs. Texas player prop picks
• Tennessee vs. Ohio State prediction
• College Football Playoff best bets
• College Football Playoff player prop bets
• College Football Playoff parlay picks
• College Football Playoff anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Notre Dame vs. Georgia opening odds

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