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Ohio State safety Caleb Downs against Texas. We're backing Downs in our CFP National Championship expert picks.
Pictured: Ohio State safety Caleb Downs against Texas. Photo by Jerome Miron-Imagn Images.

With Ohio State and Notre Dame set to take the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), we're making our CFP National Championship expert picks.

CFP National Championship expert picks: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

College football odds subject to change. See all of our college football picks for more on this week's top matchups.

MatchupRob PaulGabe Henderson
MoneylineOhio State ()Ohio State (-350 at BetMGM)
SpreadNotre Dame +9.5 (-112 via BetRivers)Ohio State -8 (-110 via ESPN BET)
Over/UnderUnder 46.5 ()Over 46.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Best player propJ. Smith to win offensive MVP ()C. Downs to win defensive MVP ()
Anytime touchdown scorer predicitonT. Henderson anytime touchdown scorer (+105 via FanDuel)J. Love anytime touchdown scorer (+175 via BetMGM)

My Ohio State vs. Notre Dame comparison looks at the tale of the tape for this national championship matchup.

Best Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction

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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction: Jeremiah Smith to win CFP National Championship Game 2025 Offensive MVP ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The two best players taking the field in the national championship aren't even going to be a part of the 2025 NFL Draft odds race, but that doesn't mean they both couldn't take home MVP honors.

While Gabe is backing sophomore superstar Caleb Downs to win defensive MVP, I'm taking freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith to win the award on offense. Sure, Texas essentially shut him down in the Cotton Bowl, but the last time he failed to make a major impact in a game (35 yards against Michigan), Chip Kelly got him touches in the following contest.

After the loss to the Wolverines, Smith combined to have 14 touches for 295 yards and four TDs against Oregon and Tennessee. Those defenses rank in the top five in , so Notre Dame ranking first by that metric shouldn't scare you off.

Smith is the Buckeyes' best playmaker and is one of just four players in the country with double-digit contested catches (12) and three-plus yards per route run (3.13), per . That's why he's the best value among Buckeyes to win offensive MVP, with a $10 winning bet paying a $40 profit.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 20%

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–– Rob Paul (SBR | )

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction: Caleb Downs to win CFP National Championship Game 2025 Defensive MVP ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Caleb Downs might be the best player on the field - which says a lot, given the abundance of NFL talent on each sideline. He's a game changer, as evidenced by his stats, which we highlight in our Ohio State football preview. Downs has a knack for the flashy fundamentals required to stand out on the biggest stages.

Defensive backs have won six of the 10 defensive MVP awards since the national championship accolades were introduced a decade ago. Seeing as the Buckeyes are a significant favorite by the spread, the award winner will more than likely come from their defense.

Our best sportsbooks list Downs at +300 to win the award, giving him a 25% implied probability. A $10 winning wager on the safety to be named MVP returns $30 in profits.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 25%

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Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or casino betting site. 21+ and present in IL. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–– Gabe Henderson (SBR | )

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